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(10/5/17)

Florida SERT Update on Tropical Depression 16

Download the update here

Summary:

  • At 11AM EDT, Invest 90L was determined to have a closed center of circulation and advisories began on Tropical Depression 16.
  • As of 5PM EDT, TD 16 had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and was moving to the northwest at 7 mph.
  • TD 16 is expected to continue to move northwestward and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday.
  • Confidence in the eventual track and intensity are still currently low, with the range of possibilities for landfall anywhere between New Orleans, LA and Tampa, FL. The current forecast is for a Category 1 hurricane at landfall.
  • Additional Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance missions will continue through the coming days.
  • The next name on the 2017 Atlantic storm list is Nate.
  • Elsewhere, a broad low pressure disturbance located near the Florida Straits, Cuba and the Bahamas will continue to increase rain chances across South Florida as it moves west.
  • Although development of this system is not expected, it will likely produce heavy rain and gusty winds over portions of the Bahamas and Florida during the next couple of days.

Florida Outlook:

  • Rainfall amounts of 2-4” (with isolated amounts up to 5-6” possible) is forecast for portions of the Florida East Coast and Florida Keys during the next 48 hours.
  • A Flood Watch is currently in effect for all coastal counties between and including Brevard and Miami-Dade counties.
  • Strong east winds combined with the lunar “King Tide” could have the potential to produce high waves and minor coastal flooding during high tide. Any locally heavy rainfall during times of high tide could exacerbate coastal flooding issues.
  • A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from Miami-Dade to Volusia County, with a Coastal Flood Warning in effect for the St. Johns River and tributaries.
  • Concerning Tropical Depression 16, specific impacts to Florida are still uncertain.
  • However, a system moving towards the U.S. Gulf Coast would have the ability to produce storm surge, dangerous surf conditions, isolated tornadoes, gusty winds, and heavy rain.

Another briefing packet will be issued Thursday morning. For more information, visit the NHC website at www.hurricanes.gov.

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